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New Yorkers will discover who will be their next mayor this Tuesday, in a race that will determine who governs and defends the country's most populous metropolis at a moment when the former president has threatened to deploy armed forces to the urban center.

In this context, New York has witnessed a mayoral election that has pitted two distinctly opposing Democrats against each other. The contest has turned into an acrimonious face-off, marked by accusations of racial bias and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the ideological divide between the two leading contenders that could have significant consequences for how the party fares in next year's congressional races.

The Rising Progressive

In the progressive corner is the democratic socialist, the young progressive candidate whose rapid ascent and people-powered movement has attracted international attention. On the establishment side is the former governor, the ex- New York governor now running as an independent – and benefiting from the backing of ultra-rich donors and corporations.

With days to go, it is the progressive, the former longshot who beat Cuomo in the party primary who is solidly positioned as the frontrunner. The candidate, who has campaigned on a platform of economic justice and promised to halt rent increases for about two million city residents, has led his rival by double-digits in every poll conducted in October, and it is very much the younger man's race to throw away.

The Controversial Campaign

Yet, Cuomo, who stepped down as governor in 2021 amid accusations of sexual harassment, has made it clear he will battle to the finish, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt manner. He has trashed his opponent's goals as unrealistic, and in recent days laughed as a radio host made Islamophobic remarks about the candidate, who is a Muslim. Recently, Cuomo was widely condemned as racist after posting an AI-generated ad that featured a slew of racial caricatures and showed Mamdani releasing a convicts.

This represents a rather grubby end to an election that could be critical to the direction that the party, struggling in its response to Trump's power moves, takes in the near future.

National Implications

If Mamdani secures a clear victory, the establishment party leaders who have declined to support his bid will be compelled to address a message that has appealed to Americans' frustration at inequality, inflation and the political elite. It would be hard for Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries not to adopt at least some of the candidate's progressive proposals about affordability, given the fresh face has created an excitement within the party perhaps not seen since the Vermont senator ran for president eight years ago.

However, if the former governor, who had been predicted to win easily in the Democratic primary, achieve a surprising riches-to-rags-to-riches victory, it could cement the party's existing approach of cautious, uninspiring opposition – a strategy that has infuriated grassroots members. A NYC rejection of Mamdani's optimistic platform could convince party leaders that the best plan is to remain in the center – even as surveys show the current iteration of the Democratic party is widely disliked nationwide.

Campaign Energy

Residents of the city appear to favor the Mamdani vision. Surveys show that his backers are far more enthusiastic about their choice than his opponent's supporters, something that has been evident throughout the campaign. Mamdani's engaging content on digital platforms, his hopeful outlook for New York and his readiness to actually get out and meet people in the city has attracted an army of more than 50,000 volunteers, many of them young or first-time voters.

Negative Tactics

However, the former governor, in his late sixties, continues to fight. And with the risks stacked against him, the former governor has turned to negative campaigning in recent weeks.

Following extensive throwing basically everything at his opponent to see what might resonate, Cuomo has narrowed his focus on targeting the candidate directly. He has labelled Mamdani, who was born in Uganda to Indian parents, an "radical", and popped up on Fox Business for an discussion with Maria Bartiromo, where Cuomo asserted New York “will not survive” his opponent as mayor. It reached a nadir recently, when Cuomo chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said the candidate would “cheer” another terrorist incident.

Campaign Dynamics

The line of attack mirrors much of what the former president, who has sent the military reserves to Washington DC and warned to do the same to New York, has said about Mamdani, and maybe that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A set of wealthy residents, including some who donated to the Republican in the 2024 election, have invested heavily into trying to get Cuomo into office, as other influential figures have pressured the Republican candidate to withdraw from the race.

Political Histories

For the his team, and his wealthy backers, are worried, it should never have come to this. When Mamdani, one of 150 New York state assembly members, started his campaign for mayor in October 2024, few had known him, and in reality, barely anyone even paid attention.

The former governor, by comparison, eased his way into the contest in this year and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the big beast who seemingly held all the advantages. The quintessential political insider, he had married a Kennedy and served in Bill Clinton’s administration. He assumed office as New York governor in over a decade ago, seventeen years after his father, Mario Cuomo, stepped down from the identical role.

The progressive, who was voted in to the New York state assembly in recently, does not have the same political heritage. But his commitment to providing free buses and free childcare – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – offer a brighter outlook of the future than his opponent's dire warnings about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his promise to increase police presence.

Campaign Controversies

Still, the candidate has faced some challenges in recent days, after video emerged suggesting him implying the NYPD and the IDF were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the NYPD is on your neck, it’s been influenced by the Israeli military,” the candidate said in the clip, filmed at a DSA gathering in recent years. The progressive, a vocal opponent of the Israeli government who has said the nation is committing genocide in the Palestinian territory, indicated he was criticizing joint training exercises between the city police and IDF.

Emotional Response

With the election nearing, the candidate seems to have gained sympathy and support, however, for his reaction to his opponent's escalating attacks.

The progressive addressed Cuomo’s 9/11 remarks in an heartfelt recording. In it, the candidate remembered how, when he first ran for state assembly, a family member advised to him that he did not have to disclose about his religion. It was a realization, Mamdani said, that many local Muslims had been taught “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the margins of our community. That it is in those shadows alone where followers of Islam could express their true selves, and that if we were to emerge from those seclusion, then it is in those shadows that we must leave our beliefs.”

Addressing the behavior of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has alleged Mamd