A mere 60 days in the past that the young forward found himself on the Stadium of Light pitch, looking confused as his coach berated him over not reading a pass in behind. At that point, with the team endured a six-game winless run, it wasn't clear if his performances were a symptom or the source for Villa's wider issues.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
In the latest match, though, the touchline reaction was far more favourable. After Rogers drilled in his brace-sealing goal to reinstate Villa's lead, the boss tore off his jacket, threw his arms wide and shouted in triumph. The Birmingham club continued to a 10th successive win and despite not winning their initial half-dozen games, find themselves only three points off pace-setters Arsenal.
Are They Legitimate Challengers?
It remains a particularly tough query to address. The historical record, a general sense of Villa, argues against it. Moreover, their performances haven't been entirely convincing in many games, even as the victories have stacked up.
As per Opta, on just two occasions has the team had an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than the opposition. For a team who have strung together ten consecutive victories, Villa appear weirdly vulnerable – however currently the margins are falling their way.
The Rogers Recipe
The current approach appears to be to trade blows with an opponent and wait for their talisman to save the day with two clinical strikes. It happened away to Leeds, it transpired in London, and it happened against the Red Devils.
The initial strike came from a brilliant finish, bent just inside the upright from the edge of the area. For his second was essentially a somewhat messier replica of the opener capitalizing on a pass from Watkins.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
Is It Sustainable?
Logic says not. Against United, the opposition managed more shots and more direct attempts. Villa have triumphed in eight consecutive games by a single goal. The defence has been breached in nearly all of those matches.
Regression to the mean might be the greatest opponent Villa have to face as the season progresses. Their key man, in all likelihood, cannot maintain blasting his shots past despairing goalkeepers week in, week out.
Potential for Growth
Maybe there exists a different scenario in which, instead of results trending towards performances, the level of play rises to match the results. Important figures may yet rediscover their best form.
- The main striker could start finding the net regularly.
- The winger could transform into the performer he showed at Borussia Dortmund.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres will eventually regain fitness, fortifying an occasionally vulnerable backline.
Perhaps there is in that the possibility of a title challenge, but they surely can persist in leaning entirely on Morgan Rogers.
Enjoying the Ride
Yet, this was unforeseen. Few believed Aston Villa would sit third at Christmas. And most definitely two months ago, nobody thought Rogers by the end of the year would be leading a title charge and appearing as a crucial England player.
This winning streak must be cherished for the very reason that it feels so unlikely. As the match-winner faced the home supporters at the final whistle orchestrating the applause, it was clear to be loving the experience. Which he fully merits. These spells are uncommon in the sport and must be appreciated.
