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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a straightforward script. It frequently acts as a form of apology. Our apologies we got wrong your team in our preseason forecasts.

On paper, it's a clear-cut line: the skipper who orchestrated the biggest turnaround is handed the award. In reality, it creates an yearly argument about expectations and whether we're genuinely rewarding excellent coaching or simply the most shocking surprise.

Yet this year's competition is fundamentally different. The group of candidates is unusually talented. It has been the season of turnarounds. The NFL has been chaotic, with reigning conference champions fading and longtime also-rans ascending together. In an ordinary year, Sean Payton leading the his team to the top of the AFC would make him the stone-cold front-runner. Yet in this turbulent and entertaining year, he's competing with several other exceptional coaches.

This is how the projected ballot should look.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Coach of the Year voters adore signal-callers. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. If you transform a quarterback, you're halfway home.

The Bears' head coach not only corrected his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. Given a proper system, Williams has been afforded the opportunity to showcase his otherworldly talent. Since Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a hot streak – it's prolonged performance. Under Johnson, Williams has become increasingly decisive, far less careless, and has willingly surrendered to the system instead of improvising. It is an offense built entirely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball run game, a steady dose of play-action and a creative passing attack that creates wide-open receivers all over the field. Williams has taken advantage. And when openings weren't there, he's been able to conjure big plays from nothing.

The coach arrived to Chicago with a defined offensive vision. Almost each gamble – rebuilding the offensive line, featuring the pass-catchers, transforming Williams into a timing-based passer – has worked. That's uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's rarer still for a coach who entered the building with the level of hype he did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the top name on the coaching carousel. But when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not only to be a scheme dork but the kind of culture builder that can breathe new life into an franchise.

In a typical year, he would be the runaway choice. But this isn't a normal season!

Where Johnson's candidacy runs slightly unstuck is on defense. The Chicago defense presently rank 25th in defensive success rate. They are relying on turnovers, and turnovers are notoriously fickle. Coaches can stress creating turnovers, but nobody can guarantee it. He is on the list because the offensive production is sustainable. He's ranked lower because variance is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. With a few breaks of the ball, the Bears would be several victories worse off. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the foundation is established for long-term success. But Johnson comes up just short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable situation to his counterpart. He's a fellow first-time leader who has orchestrated a rapid turnaround. Over the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete overall ball of his career. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defensive unit that now ranks fifth in the league in EPA per play.

What's more impressively, Coen has mastered the leadership aspects, which was not a certainty after his early public appearances and some of his preseason decisions.

The coach took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw staff. Unlike Johnson, who packed their staff with the ideal coaching blend of youth and veteran savvy, he hired newbies. Starting with the leader himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jags are stocked with rookies. That kind of setup is intriguing in theory, but frequently collapses in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everybody is figuring out a their job on the fly. But he has managed to bring everyone and everything together.

After an initial hot start, there was a chance that the season would veer off the track. A midseason collapse caused the Jags wobbling once more. That's usually when coaches panic and change too much. Coen didn't. Instead, he streamlined things. Jacksonville stopped pursuing explosive plays and started hunting sustainable ones. Coen refocused the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are clear. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the conference's number three seed. Coen receives the slightest deduction in the standings because he took over a skilled roster, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Every Coach of the Year argument has a hinge decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback decision.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a new signal-caller and partnering him with an innovative play-caller might have derailed the season in the early weeks. Rather, it shaped it. Through the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP contender. He has cooled off since that time, slipping to a lower rank in efficiency per pass attempt over the second half of the season, placing him just a single spot ahead of peers.

Still