A decade after the UK entered into a hurried referendum that split the country and caused disorder, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in academia but very few government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with the essentials. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unity or the current situation. They authors two pieces that aim for objectivity in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and societal data, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," said O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the idea that there might be valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate report they support unity but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent official who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he stated. "One side will prevail here and the other side will in the end not succeed but both parties has has something to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
